Monthly Archives: March 2020

Antarctic e-commerce (002127)： GMV continues to maintain a high growth foundation and looks forward to future performance explosion

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Antarctic e-commerce (002127): GMV continues to maintain a high growth foundation and looks forward to future performance explosion

Investment Highlights: The company released the 19H1 semi-annual report, and the overall growth rate was in line with expectations.

19H1 company revenue was 16.

3.4 billion, an increase of 32.

4%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

8.6 billion, 杭州桑拿 an increase of 32.

4%; 19Q2 company revenue was 8.

10 billion, an increase of 11.

0%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

6.4 billion, an increase of 30.

4%.

.
The company’s GMV has maintained healthy growth on all platforms.

The company’s 19Q2 full platform GMV reached 57.

900 million, an increase of 69%, the GMV of the whole platform reached 109 in the first half.

800 million, an increase of 61.

7%.

In terms of different platforms, the growth rate of 19H1 in each platform of Ali / Jingdong / Social / Vipshop has reached 55.

6% / 37.

6% / 130.

7% / 167.

8%.

At the same time, in terms of brands, the Antarctic brand 19H1 increased by 67.

6% to 95.

4 billion.

The Antarctic people’s main brand has become China’s leading consumer goods brand, which is dominated by e-commerce channels.

(1) From the perspective of consumer visits, the number of payments made by Ali Platform Stores in 19H1 was nearly one.

300 million pieces, paying more than 100 million person-times; the average monthly number of visitors of the Antarctic underwear category on the Ali platform is nearly 40 million, the average monthly unit price is 49 yuan, and the average monthly conversion is 19.

64%.

(2) From the perspective of core categories, the company’s “Men’s Underwear / Men’s Underwear / Home Service” GMV 23.

2.9 billion, a 56% increase with a market share of 7.
.

1%; “Bedding” GMV 12.

9.2 billion, a 52% increase with a market share of 7.
.

0%, ranking first in the industry.

(3) Looking at the growth rate of large stores, the official flagship store of Antarctic people (women’s underwear / men’s underwear / houseware) increased by 242% to 4 in the same period.

At 0 billion, the Antarctic People’s Choice Store (bedding) 19H1GMV also increased by 215% to 3.

0 billion.
The main business income and average profit grew steadily, and the monetization rate shifted slightly, but still in the normal model.

The company’s 19H1 vital modern services business revenue also increased 29.
2% to 4.

2.4 billion, of which brand integrated services + dealer authorization business increased by 36% to 3.

At the same time, the company’s 19H1 continuing business net profit also increased by 39.

6% to 3.

2.9 billion.

From the perspective of 19Q2, the ratio of company (brand integrated services + dealer authorized business income) / GMV was 5 from the same period last year.

8% fell to 4 this year.

4%, we believe that it is mainly due to the company’s continuous development of new categories that need to sacrifice its own revenue in the short term to support the growth of new categories, and the overall monetization rate remains stable.

Cash flow from main operations was stable, and accounts receivable continued to improve.

The company’s 19H1 main business operating cash flow 1.
.

2.4 billion, continued to maintain stability; at the same time, brand receivables and comprehensive services business receivables.

900 million, an increase of 26.

24%, lower than the growth rate of this business income, and the accounts receivable continued to improve.

At the same time, the company’s factoring business receivables3.

1 billion, down 23 previously.

7%.

The time scale of time interconnection income remained stable, accounts receivable, and cash flow improved significantly.

Time Connect’s 19H1 revenue also increased by 33.

7% to 12.

100 million; net profit attributable to mothers was 57.39 million, an increase of 2%; on this basis, the net operating cash flow turned from 96.67 million last year to 26.08 million; the amount of time receivables continued to decline.

5% to 1.

85 billion.

Profit forecast and investment grade: We continue to expect the company’s main business to achieve close to 40% performance growth in the 19th year, driven by the rapid growth of GMV, and the main business net profit is expected to reach more than 1 billion.

At the same time, the time integration is combined, and we maintain that the company’s 19-year net profit is expected to reach more than 1.2 billion, corresponding to the current estimate of 21X.

We believe that the company’s organizational model has significant 深圳桑拿网 advantages, and the momentum of continuous growth in the main industry is still in place. It is currently estimated to be relatively reasonable.

As a rare high-growth target in the apparel and retail sectors, it will continue to receive high attention from the market and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: Monetization rate is not up to expectations, new brand operations exceed expectations, and third-party platform policy risks.

Tongwei shares (600438) 2019 semi-annual report performance review： high-efficiency new capacity released to help high-growth product prices bottomed out and will drive profitability to rise

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Tongwei shares (600438) 2019 semi-annual report performance review: high-efficiency new capacity 都市夜网 released to help high-growth product prices bottomed out and will drive profitability to rise
Brief evaluation of performance The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, reporting and realizing revenue of 161.2.4 billion (+29.4%) and net profit of 14.5.1 billion (+58.0%), in line with market expectations.　　Operational analysis The impact of capacity release and cost reduction on price declines, and improved performance and profitability: Benefiting from conversion and battery cell capacity release, enhanced sales of aquatic specialty feeds, and major customer development, the company’s output and cell sales in 2019H1 reached 2 respectively.28 positive (+162.85%) and 6GW (+ 97%), feed sales increase by 17% each year, and grid-connected generators add 238MW to 1389MW. Affected by the large-scale release of new production 杭州桑拿 capacity in the industry, the average prices of 2019H1 silicon materials, polycrystalline battery cells, and single crystal battery cells decreased by 38%, 35%, and 24%, respectively.The release of new capacity has driven down costs, and partly hedged the impact of falling silicon prices. The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin reached 22.0% and 9.0%, rising by 2 every year.44/1.63 points. 下半年产能继续释放带动量增减本，盈利能力回归上升通道：公司补充重新及电池片产能上半年尚在爬坡过程中，预计下半年新产能利用率继续提升，收益总销量分别超过 6正极And 13.5GW.Increasing the amount of increase will dilute costs, and the overall monocrystalline material proportion will increase from about 40% in the first half to 80-85%, which will increase revenue and profit.It is expected that Chengdu Phase IV and Meishan Phase I will have a total capacity of 8GW of monocrystalline cell production by the end of 2019 and early 2020, when the cell production capacity will reach 20GW.In addition, Tongwei owns 550MW bidding + 890MW parity + leader and demonstration base projects. Overlapping convertible bonds and short-term debt replacement bring financial structure optimization. It is expected that the number of new grid connections in 2019-2020 is expected to reach 1.5-2GW. The prices of PERC cells and silicon materials have fallen to the lowest level, and with the successive start of domestic demand in September, there will be a high probability of a rebound.The current PERC battery chip price has dropped to zero.9-0.93 yuan / W, has clearly fallen below the high cost capacity cash cost.At the current price, the conversion of high-cost production capacity has reduced the operating rate due to cost and inventory pressure. Some downstream component companies have prepared stocks in advance. Overseas demand has switched to single crystals. Nine months of domestic demand has started.Form support. In addition, the current PERC production expansion progress of the industry at current prices is increasing. It is expected that the scale of investment will be reduced next year. Once again, the supply and demand situation will be eased after the expansion of wafer production in Q1 next year.Cell profitability will improve.The start of domestic demand will offset the impact of the new capacity release of silicon materials, and the price of single crystal silicon materials will maintain or even rise slightly.　　Profit adjustment and investment recommendations As the price of battery chips fell slightly more than expected, we updated the company’s 2019-2021 net profit forecast to 30 (-11%), 40 (-8%), and 51 (-2%) budgets, corresponding to EPS respectivelyIs 0.77/1.02/1.31 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating, target price of 15.4, corresponding to 20 times 2019PE.　　Risk reminder that bidding project construction progress is less than expected, grid-connected consumption situation deteriorates, and international trade environment deteriorates

SPD Bank (600,000) 2019 Annual Results Express Commentary： Risks continue to be mitigated

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SPD Bank (600,000) 2019 Annual Results Express 重庆桑拿网 Commentary: Risks continue to be mitigated

In the past three years, the company’s balance sheet has been continuously adjusted, and the stability of the report has been improved; the stock risk in terms of asset quality is still being mitigated, and future provisions may still be withdrawn.

Matters: SPDB issued the 2019 performance report, and the annual (unaudited, the same below) operating income and net profit attributable to mothers increased year by year.

6% and 5.

36%, average ROE12.

3%, a decline of 0 per year.

84ppt.

Earnings growth is lower than market expectations.

The company’s net profit attributable to mothers increased by 5 in 2019.

36%, lower than the first three quarters and gradually exceeded the growth rate of 11.

9%.

Extending the scope of revenue growth improvement, the cumulative growth rate for each of the first three quarters / years is 15 respectively.

4% / 11.

6%; it is expected that the company reportedly increased its provisioning efforts in the fourth quarter.

The scale continued to expand steadily.

The company’s total assets in 2019 increased by 11.

37%, which is faster than the growth rate in 20182.

48% rebounded significantly, of which Q4 single quarter growth of 3.

15%.

The company has continued to adjust the balance sheet structure since 2017, including: ① Reducing dependence on interbank funds, and the proportion of interbank liabilities in 2019H19.

04% (down 8 from the end of 2016.

9 pcts); ② reduce non-standard investment, non-standard total assets in the 2019H table instead of 6.

99% (19 at the end of 2016.

07%) ③ Return to the loan business, and the new loans in 2017-2019H accounted for 118% of the total new assets.

9%, the 2019H earnings ratio rose to 54.

38% (45 at the end of 2016.

66%).

The structural adjustment will help enhance the stability of the balance sheet and the stabilization of future volume and price factors.

Clearing credit risk.

The company’s NPL ratio rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2019, and rose to 2 at the end of the year.

05% (up 29bps month-on-month), according to the company’s intensity of risk exposure at the end of the year; meanwhile, the difference in the growth rate of basic operating income and operating profit, we also increased provision for this company.

As of 2019Q3, the company’s “bad + attention rate” is still at 4.

A high level of 64% (A-share listed banks average 3 in 2019H.

88%), the risk exposure may still be maintained in the future, and incremental risk will focus on credit card and other fields.

In terms of provision, the provision coverage rate in 2019Q3 was 159.

11%, still below the average of 219 for listed banks.

81%.

Risk factors: The rapid growth of the macro economy is down, and asset quality worsens than expected.

Investment suggestion: After the company’s balance sheet has undergone structural adjustment for nearly three years, the stability of the statement has improved; the inventory risk in terms of asset quality is still being clarified, and the incremental risk is focused on credit card and other businesses. Provisions may still be in the futureCalculate demand.Maintain “Overweight” rating, and take into account that the company’s risks are still being cleared, and slightly lower the EPS forecast for common stock shareholders in 2020/21 to 2.

10/2.

31 yuan (previous forecast 2).

28/2.

49 yuan), currently sustainable corresponding to 0 in 2020.

61xPB.

Teda Manulife India QDII plunges 5% in incremental yields from positive to negative in July

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Teda Manulife India QDII plunges 5% in incremental yields from positive to negative in July

Original title: Teda Manulife India ‘s QDII plunged 5% in July and the return rate changed from positive to negativeProducts, but driven by the sharp growth of the Indian stock market in the early stage, such funds have performed well.

　　In fact, from the perspective of the Indian stock market, the Indian Mumbai SENSEX30 index can be described as a new high for many years in a row, which of course also benefits such funds.

For example, TEDA Manulife India (006105), which was established on January 30 this year, is mainly invested in Indian-themed companies. Although the net value has changed since April, only three months have passed, which is the net value on July 4.It went up to 1.

0752 yuan, yield of 7.

52%.

　　However, the Indian stock market has seen a part since then. Judging from the trend in July, the Indian Mumbai SENSEX30 index fell by 4.

86%, which caused Teda Manulife India, which just hit a new high, to fall by 5 in July.

31%, and ranked among the top five in QDII fund declines in July.

　　From the fund’s only second quarter report, the equity assets accounted for 80% of the fund’s total assets.

96%, while Indian assets account for 90% of the fund’s NAV.

52%, the fund manager also stated in the second quarterly report: “In terms of industry ratio, the top four industries are finance, information technology, energy and medical technology, which account for 37%, 13%, and 7%, respectively.7% “.

　　International investment agencies believe that the long-term performance of the Indian stock market is mostly affected by domestic interest rate policy trends and fiscal system reforms.

In July, the Indian stock market pulled back for correction, mainly due to the weaker corporate earnings forecast last quarter, the government raised corporate taxes and earnings, and replaced disappointments such as expectations.

　　A thorough analyst said that the biggest advantage of the Indian stock market is the loosening of monetary and monetary policy stance. India has cut interest rates three times this year for a long time, with a benchmark interest rate of 5.

75% is expected to be a low of nearly nine years, which will bring surplus funds to the market.

According to experience, one year after the interest rate cut, Indian stocks have a growth probability of up to 80%.

In addition, the third quarter is the traditional peak season of the Indian stock market. The Indian ruling party not only won the election, but also unexpectedly increased the number of seats in the parliamentary elections. This helped policy progress.

　　However, from the perspective of the market after August, the Indian Mumbai SENSEX30 index continued to fall by more than 2%, which also caused Teda Manulife India to fully retreat at the beginning. Until August 5th, the fund’s growth rate of return has appeared 0.

97% probability.

　　From the experience of fund manager Shi Jing, he worked at Phillip Securities from July 2010 to September 2017, and successively served as a senior global stock trader and fund portfolio manager; joined TEDA Manulife on September 25, 2017Fund Management Co., Ltd., working in the International Business Department and assistant to the fund manager, until December 25, 2017, began to manage Teda Manulife Hong Kong Stock Connect Equity Fund.

　　If counting from the time when the Air Force manages the fund portfolio, its accumulated time as a fund manager has been as long as 4 years, and it has been more than 1 year as a fund manager under the TEDA Manulife Fund.

However, it must be August 5th, the TEDA Manulife Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks A and C managed by Shi Jing were changed to 8.

69% and 6.

11%, unless the 2018 plunge is ruled out, the two funds will only increase after entering 2019.

74% and 8.

34%, the performance is far behind the average of similar.

The return of his 188 days with Teda Manulife India (QDII) was zero.

97%, lagging behind QDII funds by an average of 5.

08% level.

　　Earliest, TEDA Manulife India (QDII) had a subscription share 深圳桑拿网 and amount of 3 when it was initially established.

7.6 billion copies / yuan, the effective subscription number is 1,447, the average number of subscriptions exceeds 260,000 copies / yuan, and the fundraising has been terminated in advance, showing investor enthusiasm for the fund.

But as of March 31, 2019, although the fund’s net worth rose slightly, it appeared to be 1.

3.3 billion net redemptions, fund assets also replaced 2.

4.3 billion, 35% lower than when it was established, and continued to experience 2 in the second quarter.

With 2.6 billion net redemptions, only zero assets remain as of June 30.

1.7 billion, has fallen below the liquidation line.

　　According to a reporter from China Economic Net, TEDA Manulife Fund Management Co., Ltd., formerly known as TEDA He Yin Fund Management Co., Ltd., was established in June 2002. Although it also has a history of up to 17 years, from the perspective of industry scale, the only 54The asset size as of June 30 was 379.

2.2 billion.

Zhengbang Technology (002157) 2018 Annual Report Review： Expansion of Hog Production Capacity Boosts 2019 Performance

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Zhengbang Technology (002157) 2018 Annual Report Review: Expansion of Hog Production Capacity Boosts 2019 Performance

Event: The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report on the evening of April 19.

The company achieved revenue of 221 in FY2018.

1.3 billion, an annual increase of 7.

27%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

$ 9.3 billion, 63 years ago.

twenty one%.

The company achieved revenue of 51 in the first quarter of 2019.

9.4 billion, an annual increase of 4.

74%; net profit attributable to mother is -4.

1.4 billion US dollars, 743 the previous ten years.

42%.

Opinion: Subject to the sluggish market of pig prices, the gross 北京夜网 profit margin has slightly decreased.

The company’s consolidated gross profit margin decreased slightly in 20181.

40 digits, the hog breeding market in 2018 in the main years continued to decline.

In 2018, the gross profit margin of feed business increased slightly, among which the gross profit margin of pig feed, poultry feed and breeding business reached 12.

31%, 4.

15% and 7.

93%, rising by 0 each year.

35 averages, 0.

20 digits and -6.

48 singles; subject to the replacement of pig prices in 2018, the gross profit of the breeding business is as prominent as possible23.

87%.

Product optimization of feed business and enhanced profitability.

In the reporting year, the company’s pig feed sales share increased from 46% last year to 55% this year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin of the feed business increased from 7 last year.

31% rose to 9 this year.

27%.

Profitability of feed business has been improved.

Pig and poultry feed sales reached 263.

65 free radicals and 188.

37 inches, an increase of 6 per year.

71% and -27.

15%.

It is expected that the continuous increase in the number of pigs produced by the company will increase the company’s sales of pig feed. In 2019, the sales of pig and poultry feed will increase by 30% and 10%.

The “company + farmer / farmer” model continues to advance, with production capacity expanding and deepening large-scale farmers in the entire industrial chain.

The company’s slaughtering volume in 2018 reached 553.

99 million heads, an increase of 61 in ten years.

87%.

We expect the company to benefit from the “company + farmers / farmers” asset-light model production capacity to resume rapid expansion in 2019. It is expected that the number of listings in 2019 will reach 7.5 million heads, which will continue to grow35.38%.

1Q19 company gradually listed 168.

760,000 heads, an increase of 58 in ten years.

88%, the expansion trend of production capacity is determined.

Investment suggestion: downgrade to cautious recommendation.

We believe that due to the swine fever production in Africa, de-swine pig prices have entered an upward trajectory, the company’s rapid increase in production capacity and overlapping pig price increases will drive the company’s highly resilient growth in 2019.

We expect the company’s slaughter volume in 2019 and 2020 to be 7.5 million and 9.75 million, respectively, and the average selling price of hogs will be 16.

0 yuan / kg and 18.

0 yuan / kg.

The complete cost of pig farming is 13 respectively.

8 yuan / kg and 13.

5 yuan / kg net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 202023.

1.3 billion and 54.

$ 7.5 billion with a budget gain of zero.

99 yuan and 2.

26 yuan corresponds to PE assessment 20 times and 8 times.

Considering that the company has achieved significant growth close to the beginning of the year.

6 times, expectation has fully reflected the target performance expectations, we downgrade to cautious recommendation.

Risk reminders: The prices of downstream 成都桑拿网 aquaculture products are sluggish; the outbreak of large animal diseases; the prices of commodity raw materials have increased significantly.

China Merchants Bank (600036)： FINTECH estimates a small step

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China Merchants Bank (600036): FINTECH estimates a small step

In 2017, China Merchants Bank officially announced the positioning goal of “Fintech Bank”, benchmarked FinTech companies, and further developed and deepened FinTech Bank as its strategic goal of “Light Bank”.

As the domestic fintech starts, it is the first listed commercial bank to benchmark fintech companies. What is the current fintech development status of 成都桑拿网 China Merchants Bank, and how far is it from fintech companies?

This paper combed China Merchants Bank’s fintech development strategy and development status in detail, and found the advantages and disadvantages of China Merchants Bank’s fintech development process through benchmarking analysis of the same industry. By analyzing the plan of “comprehensive benchmarking fintech company”, it clarifiedThe strategy and direction of China Merchants Bank’s financial technology development.

Advancement of China Merchants Bank’s fintech strategy As early as 2010, China Merchants Bank started to build mobile banking applications and launched the WeChat public account in 2013, leading in fintech awareness; In 2016, China Merchants Bank officially stated that it would accelerate the fintech strategy, Promote the company’s transition to a “networked, data-based, intelligent” future bank, and clarify the “mobile-first” strategy in the retail finance sector, the “online” strategy in the wholesale finance sector, and the R & D strategy for risk management prediction models; 2017In 2010, China Merchants Bank also clarified the goals of Fintech banks, and in 2018 proposed a benchmark for Fintech companies to embrace banks3.

0 era.

In terms of retail, wholesale and risk management, China Merchants Bank is leading the development of fintech in the retail end, and vigorously uses fintech, mainly two major mobile apps, “China Merchants Bank” and “Handheld Life”.

In 2018, China Merchants Bank proposed to use monthly active users (MAU) as the “North Star” indicator for the development of retail business, which led to the transformation of the entire concept of China Merchants Bank ‘s retail business to digitalization. The MAU of the two major apps reached 8104.

670,000, an increase of 47 from the end of last year.

twenty four%.

We believe that retail-side fintech applications have improved customer acquisition capabilities, improved service accuracy, promoted the development of credit card business, and promoted the implementation of a cardless strategy.

On the wholesale side, 2018 has begun to deepen the fintech layout, and we believe this is the latest highlight of its fintech.

In terms of risk management, dating big data and fintech have comprehensively improved risk identification and early warning capabilities.

Benchmarking analysis of fintech strategies of listed banks: The advantage of fintech development at the retail end has become an inevitable option for each bank’s strategy.

A comparative analysis of the fintech development of ICBC, CCB, Minsheng and CITIC found that: although banks have been increasing their emphasis on fintech, China Merchants Bank still has no financial technology sector, especially the combination of fintech and retail business.Terrible territories.

Benchmarking analysis of fintech companies: Advantages In the business and data resources end, China Merchants Bank has developed fintech technologies through benchmarking fintech companies, while taking advantage of banks’ unique advantages in wholesale business and data resources, which is different from fintech companies.Development, there is still much to be done in the field of fintech in the future.

In addition to the fundamental reasons for the increase in revenue and net profit, NIM rebound, decline in non-performing ratio, and prominent retail advantages, we believe that the advantages of China Merchants Bank’s financial technology are more prominent, and the development of financial technology in this yearIt is expected that the substantial impact of the retail side will gradually emerge, strengthening the advantages of the retail side; obtaining a retail premium can exceed 100%.

It mainly comes from the two dimensions of quantity and quality: first, entering the card-free era, mobile phone apps replace bank cards, and at the same time leveraging MAU assessment incentives, the number of retail customers will increase geometrically.

Currently 1.

2.5 billion retail customers are expected to reach around 300 million in the future. It is not a problem. Second, after the strength of financial technology, customer portraits will be improved, products and services will be more accurate for customers, and the contribution of unit customers will increase.

Fintech’s application in the public domain and risk management will also reduce business operating costs and increase business contribution.

We expect the company’s operating income 北京桑拿洗浴保健 to increase by 13% / 15% annually in 19/20, the net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 16% / 17% over ten years, and the EPS to be 3 respectively.

70 yuan / 4.

33 yuan, BVPS is 23.

64 yuan / 26.

23 yuan, the corresponding PE is 9.

6/8.

2, the corresponding PB is 1.

50/1.

35.

Maintain “Buy” rating, with a six-month target price of 43 yuan, corresponding to 1.

8 times PB.

Tianshun Wind Energy (002531) Quarterly Report Review： First Quarterly Reported Results Basically Meet Expectations

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Tianshun Wind Energy (002531) Quarterly Report Review: First Quarterly Reported Results Basically Meet Expectations

Event: On April 29, 2019, Tianshun Wind Energy released the 2019 first quarter report.

The income has grown rapidly, and the first-quarter results are basically in line with expectations.

In Q1 2019, the company realized revenue 8.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

87%, achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.

26%, net profit after deduction is 0.

85 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.

81%, with an expected average ROE of 1.

65%, zero for one year.

02.

The proportion of the three fees increased slightly, and the operating cash flow continued to improve.

Due to the increase in domestic wind tower renovation volume, freight costs increased in sales costs, and the company’s sales costs in 2019Q1 were zero.

29 ppm, an increase of 89 in ten years.

84%, selling expenses 3.

4%, an increase of 1 pct per year.

At the same time, the company’s Q1 R & D expenses reached zero.

22 trillion, an increase of 547 per year.

7%, R & D expenses accounted for 2%.

6%.

The slight increase in the proportion of the three fees temporarily affected the company’s profitability.

However, the company’s operating cash flow continued to improve, and the company’s operating cash flow in 2019Q1 was -1.

89 ‰, an increase of 31 in ten years.

23%, cash flow continued to improve last year.

The advance payment has been substantially improved, waiting for the release of orders in hand.

In Q1 of 2019, the company’s fund received in advance was 4.

1.2 billion, an annual increase of 288.

7%, an increase of 142.

4%.

The company’s significant increase in hand orders helped the growth of pre-receipts.

In 2018, the company completed the technical transformation of the old capacity in Taicang, Baotou and Zhuhai. In April 2019, the company also announced that it plans to build a 10-year wind tower capacity in Shandong Tancheng.

The 杭州风月网 technical transformation of old production capacity and the landing of new production capacity are expected to break the company’s production capacity growth and help improve performance.

All 100MW of Xiemaling Wind Farm is connected to the grid, 50MW of Licun Phase II and 150MW of Wucheng are nearing completion, and the scale of wind direction is expanding.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s operating wind farm capacity was 465MW.

According to company news, on April 12, all 100MW of Tongbai Xiemaling Wind Farm was connected to the grid, of which 85MW had been connected to the grid at the end of 2018, adding 15MW of grid-connected capacity.

On April 16th, the first batch of 50MW wind farms in Licun Phase II of the company realized grid-connected power generation, and all subsequent grid-connected power generations are just around the corner.

At the same time, on December 27, 2018, 75 wind turbines of the company’s 150MW wind farm have been hoisted, and the project is nearing completion.

Subsequent wind farms are gradually connected to the grid, which is expected to expand the company’s power generation scale and promote performance growth. Profit forecast: It is expected that the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 will be 50.

55/65.

97/78.

2.3 billion, net profit attributable to mothers6.

87/8.

97/10.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.

4% / 30.

6% / 20.

5%, corresponding to PE of 13.

7/10.

5/8.

7 times.

Risk Warning: The price of steel products fell less than expected; the pace of wind farm grid connection was less than expected; blade customer development was less than expected; wind tower capacity was released less than expected

Magang (600808) 2018 Annual Report Comments： Long Product Profitability Improves High Score Attraction

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Magang (600808) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Long Product Profitability Improves High Score Attraction
The company’s preliminary operating income for 2018 was 819.52 ppm, an increase of 11 years.91%, net profit attributable to mother 59.43 ppm, an increase of 43 in ten years.94%.In terms of profit distribution, a preliminary cash dividend of 0 was found.36 yuan (including tax), the dividend ratio is 46.6%.The company’s production capacity has improved, profitability has improved significantly, and the current high dividend yield is attractive. The production capacity was maximized and reached a new high, and the output was stable under the background of de-capacity.In 2018, the company increased the production capacity of pig iron, crude steel and steel to 98%, 91% and 95%, respectively.With the exit of 100 iron smelting production capacity and 128 crude steel production capacity to complete the three-year de-capacity target, the output was basically the same as the final production. The minimum values of pig iron, crude steel and steel production were 1800, 1964 and 1870 respectively.A total of 1873 steel products were initially sold, with an annual increase of 0.37%, the production and sales rate of major steel 武汉夜生活网 products are all over 100%. The price center has been rising significantly, and the profitability of long products has improved.In 2018, the company’s product price center increased significantly, and its steel tonnage income was 3930.24 yuan, an annual increase of 8.90%.Affected by the increase in raw material prices and the increase in repair and maintenance costs, the gross profit per ton was 542.41 yuan, equivalent to 1 each year.76%.The volume and price of long products rose in 2018, and profitability improved. The average price of long products per ton was 3697.75 yuan, an annual increase of 11.34%, gross profit margin increased to 17.25%, while sales increase by 1 every year.13%, Q4 single season sales of 217.85 for the first time, the proportion of steel has further increased to 50.36%; the plate is affected by the weak trend of production and sales of downstream automobiles and home appliances.67 nominal, accounting for 48.24%, gross margin blood pressure 2.89 up to 11.50%. Operating net cash flow increased significantly, and the capital structure was further optimized.The company’s net cash flow from operating activities increased significantly. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2018 was 138.70 ppm, an increase of 201 in ten years.54%.The capital structure has improved significantly, with asset and liability restructuring at the end of 201858.38%, a decline of 3 per year.With 89 shares, the company optimized its debt structure by reducing and repaying debts and issuing short-term financing bonds. The dividend ratio has increased significantly, and high dividends are attractive.In 2018, it is planned to distribute 0 cash dividends to all shareholders of the company.36 yuan (including tax), the cash dividend amount is 27.72 ppm, dividend payout fee 46.64%, an increase of 15 per year.87 digits, based on the closing price of March 22, 20194.Calculated at RMB 01 per share, the company’s dividend yield is as high as 8.At 85%, full attraction can be obtained. Risk factors: Lower-than-expected demand from downstream automotive and home appliance industries; supply side releases investment expectations beyond expectations; since the fourth quarter of 2018, steel prices have shown deviations in variation, and due to environmental protection and production restriction policies, the steel price hub is expected to be 2019Will be lower than 2018.At the same time, due to the impact of foreign mining accidents, iron ore prices have risen significantly. It is expected that the overall cost of raw materials for steel companies will be raised, so we will forecast the company’s EPS for 2019-20 from 0.76/0.80 yuan is reduced to 0.61/0.62 yuan, plus 0 EPS forecast for 2021.63 yuan.The company is the leader of Anhui steel enterprises, with obvious regional advantages, a balanced and continuously optimized product structure, and a high percentage of dividends that slightly exceeded expectations.We think the company’s estimate will continue to rise, according to 8x PE estimates in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 4.88 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

CPIC (601601)： No fear of marginal improvement in short-term new pressured investment end

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CPIC (601601): No fear of marginal improvement in short-term new pressured investment end

Reserves are released, the expense ratio is stable, the investment side is improved, and profit growth is promoted.

In Q1 2019, the company achieved a net profit of 5.5 billion (YoY + 46%).

Mainly due to: 1) Total premiums increased steadily and the expense ratio was stable: 19Q1 company’s life insurance premium income was 92.9 billion (YoY + 3%), and property insurance premium income was 35.4 billion (YoY + 13%).

Fee and commission expenses decreased by 9% (the same as the decrease in new orders). The fee and commission expenses rate was YoY-2pct, and the management expense rate was YoY + 2pct. The expense rate was basically flat.

2) 750-day moving average online migration, negative growth of new orders, resulting in release of reserves and increased profits: the insurance liability reserve drawn by the company in 19Q1 decreased by 7%, accounting for 47% of premium income (YoY-6pct).

Relatively speaking, the new life insurance in 19Q1 saw a negative growth of 9%, which was the primary reason for the decline in insurance liability reserves.

At the same time, it is estimated that as of the end of 19Q1, the 750-day movement of the ten-year government bond maturity yield is relatively 3.

38%, which was 8bps higher at the end of 18Q1. Generally speaking, insurance companies will raise the assumption of discount rates for traditional insurance reserves and reduce the provision for insurance contract reserves.

Assuming that the company has not adjusted its reserve discount rate assumption, the change in the proportion of 19Q1 reserve withdrawals in premium income should be the same as the decline in new orders.

However, the change in the actual withdrawal rate is lower than the decrease in new orders. Therefore, we can rule out that the company’s actuarial assumptions or adjustments are more cautious.

3) The elasticity of equity assets is prominent, and the return on investment has picked up.

1Q1 total investment yield 4.

6% (+ 4pct year-on-year), with a net investment return of 4.

4% (year-on-year + 2pct), comprehensive investment return rate (estimated) 7.

4% (+ 3pct year-on-year).

Mainly related to investment income, gains and losses from changes in fair value, and other comprehensive income increased by RMB 2,918,680 million, respectively, to RMB 1,55,117,200 million.

Life insurance: New orders have a slight negative growth. It is expected that the improvement of the structure will help the NBV decline more narrowly.

1) 19Q1 life insurance premiums were 929 trillion (YoY + 3%), total new orders were 20.8 billion yuan (YoY-9%), new individual and group insurance orders were 17.4 billion (YoY-13%), and 34 trillion (year-on-year growth19%).

Among them, the proportion 北京夜网 of a long-term insurance business is likely to increase.

The improvement of the “open door” business structure directly promotes the improvement of NBVM. It is expected that the decline in NBV will gradually be lower than that of new orders, and the pressure on new orders will be eased from Q2.

2) Renewal premiums of 687 million (YoY + 11%). The growth rate has fallen or the overall premium growth rate may have fallen this year due to the decline in the premiums paid in 2018.

Property insurance: Car insurance increased steadily, and non-vehicles increased rapidly, helping the insurance premiums continue to grow.

19Q1 property insurance premiums were 35.4 billion (YoY + 13%), a growth rate of 6 pct lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in auto insurance premiums.

1) Commercial 深圳桑拿网 vehicle fares have been deepened and new car sales have increased. In 19Q1, auto insurance premium income was only 23.7 billion yuan (YoY + 6%), which is expected to achieve a steady growth in auto insurance.

The fee reform was deepened, and the integration of newspapers and banks continued to advance. Under the pressure of expense ratios, leading insurance companies have a broad stock of businesses, and have outstanding channels, pricing and fixed loss advantages.

2) Non-auto insurance premiums of 117 million (+ 28% year-on-year) maintained a high increase, mainly due to the assistance of guarantee insurance, liability insurance and agricultural insurance, which is expected to become a new growth point for property insurance premiums.

The margin of investment has improved significantly, and the style of asset allocation is stable without changing the elasticity of equity assets.

1Q1 CPIC’s income from investment assets accounted for 82.

6% (from the end of last year-0.

5pct); stocks and equity funds account for 6.

7% (+1 from the end of the previous year.

1pct), which is still at the level of listed peers. It is expected that the increase in the proportion will be mainly due to the increase in market value, rather than actively adding positions.

Under the neutral assumption, the bond yield is 4.

5%, non-standard rate of return 7.

1%, CPIC 19Q1 stock + equity fund income increased negative.

Combined with the stock market’s 30% increase in 19Q1 and other comprehensive income increasing by $ 6.8 billion, we assume that the stock + equity fund yield of 5% will gradually increase CPIC’s total investment yield to 5 in 2019.

4%.

Investment suggestion: Life insurance new order pressure will be eased from Q2, and the decline will gradually narrow; business structure continues to be optimized, NBVM is improved, and NBV is expected to turn positive in 19H1.Auto insurance has increased steadily, while non-vehicle insurance has increased steadily, helping to increase the property insurance premiums steadily; leading insurance companies have outstanding pricing and fixed loss advantages, which is expected to achieve excess underwriting profit compared to the industry.

The stock market bottomed out and the 10-year Treasury yield steadily rose. The investment side will show a definitive marginal improvement.

At present the company meets the corresponding P / EV of 2019-2021 is 0.

9x, 0.

8x, 0.

7 times, maintaining the highly recommended level.

Risk warning: interest rates continue to fall, market volatility, investment income growth; premium growth is less than expected.

Macalline (601828)： Two-wheel drive for leading brands and operational capabilities in the home retail channel

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Macalline (601828): Two-wheel drive for leading brands and operational capabilities in the home retail channel
Macalline’s leading home actually landed on A shares, forming a Ssangyong competition pattern.The Red Star Macalline Air Force was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange 无锡夜网 in 2016, and officially entered the A-share market in 2018.On October 17, the restructuring of Wuhan Zhongshang was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission, and the house will actually use Wuhan Zhongshang to land in a stock market and become another listed home retail giant after Red Star Macalline.The current market forms a double-headed structure. Macalline’s revenue continues to accelerate.Red Star Macalline’s three-year revenue has gradually doubled since it was listed in June 2016 (6.11%, 14.54%, 30.17%), but the revenue overrun ratio of new retail in the past two years has been slightly lower, and has remained stable at about 13%. Macalline’s gross profit margin remains relatively high, with diverse sources of income.In 2018, the gross profit margin of Red Star Macalline (65%) was significantly higher than the gross profit margin of new retail (45%).Mainly stems from two points: 1) Red Star Macalline has performed more prominently in its main business “leasing management”.Red Star Macalline has effectively controlled property costs while ensuring high merchant rents and property management fees due to its core areas in various towns around its own stores and its own long-term management experience.2) Red Star Macalline ‘s other major business “commissioned” has a higher gross profit, with a gross profit margin of 60.36%.　　The gross profit margin of some projects even reached 90%, which was mainly due to the labor cost of its commissioned business, and other costs decreased. Double taps cut the national furniture market, and Macalline has a slight advantage.Macalline has maintained the number of stores in the past three years.　　In 2018, Red Star Macalline (308 stores) had the largest number of new retail stores (285 stores). Macalline’s management model has more control and more balance between various sources of income: 1) It is also an asset-light expansion. Red Star Macalon’s management model has more operating control over its shopping malls.Therefore, it is more convenient to standardize process management, cost control, provide high-quality services, enhance brand awareness, and help build a good consumer reputation.2) Red Star Macalline’s operating income channels are more balanced.Leasing management accounts for about 50% of total revenue, 29% for commissioned business, 10% for construction and design services, and 3% for merchandise sales. Profit forecast and rating: Considering the company’s strong brand power, management and operation capabilities, high bargaining power for fully competitive home B-end customers, and continuous and rapid expansion of store revenue, it is expected to achieve revenue 168 in 2019-2021.14/198.62/231.320,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mother 49.64/55.26/60.17 trillion, eps are 1.40/1.56/1.69 yuan, corresponding to the price-earnings ratio of 7 on October 29, 2019.9/7.1/6.5 times, the first coverage given a “prudent overweight” rating.Risk Warning: Store Expansion Is Less Than Expected