Ping An of China (601318): Firm value and technological transformation are optimistic about long-term value growth
Event: The company released its 2019 annual report and achieved 1494 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.
07 million yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.
1%, corresponding EPS is 8.
41 yuan / share; net assets attributable to shareholders of the parent company at the end of the period 6731.
61 ppm, an increase of 21 from the beginning of the year.
0%, corresponding to a BVPS of 36.
82 yuan / share; end-of-year value 1.
20 trillion yuan, an increase of 19 over the beginning of the year.
8%; intended cash dividends 2.
05 yuan / share.
Investment Highlights Group: Net profit attributable to mother +39 per year.
1%, operating profit grew steadily by +18.
The company achieved net profit of 1494 attributable to mothers in 2019.
07 million yuan, +39 for ten years.
1%, specifically: 1) the discount rate is relatively high, and the increase in reserves affects the release of profits: the current discount rate used by the company in 2019 is assumed to be 3.
60%, the upper limit compared to 2018 (3.
(75%), a decrease of 15 basis points, and the increase in reserves to reduce pre-tax profits by 207.
74 ppm; 2) Operating profit maintained steady growth of +18.
1%: Excluding investment fluctuations (+193.
5.4 billion), the impact of changes in discount rate (-131.
6.4 billion) and financial factors (+104.
5.3 billion) and other one-time factors, the company’s operating profit increased by 18 every time.
1%, still maintaining solid growth.
Life insurance: +5 ahead of NBV.
1%, new business value rate, per capita new business value has increased significantly: the company’s life insurance and health insurance business in 2019 achieved net profit attributable to the mother.
59 trillion, +77 ten years ago.
3%; new business value 759.
45 billion, previously +5.
1%, of which Q4 new business value is 171.
40 billion, previously +1.
6%, specifically: 1) The negative growth gap of new single premiums has narrowed significantly: in 2019, the first-year premiums used to calculate the value of new business will be 1604.
780,000 yuan, at least -3.
0%, including the first year premium of 382 in the fourth quarter.
50,000 yuan, +25 quarter-on-quarter.
At 8%, the gap in the negative growth rate of new insurance premiums has been significantly narrowed. 2) The value rate of new business has increased significantly: NBV profit margin improvement is the main reason for the value to continue to increase under the new policy vertical background.Of new business value rate is close to increasing3.
3%, mainly due to the optimization of product structure, reducing the value of short-storage storage products, promoting protection and sales of long-term savings products; 3) the new business value per capita has significantly increased, and the quality of agents has improved: the company insists on quality humanDevelopment, focusing on improving the quality of agents.
The number of agents is 17 compared with the initial period.
7% to 116.
70,000, but the value of new business per capita increased significantly16.
4% to 5.
68 million / year, the number of new insurance policies per capita increased by +13 per year.
1% to 1.
38 cases / month, the production capacity of agents increased significantly.
The company screens the entrance through AI, eliminates low-capacity agents, combines technology and personnel training in depth, and empowers the development of agent teams.
Property and Casualty Insurance: Improved profitability and increased comprehensive cost ratio. Interbank: Property and Casualty Insurance of the Company achieved net profit of 228 in 2019.
08 billion, previously significant +85.
8%. Excluding the one-time profit release effect of the tax preferential policy, P & C insurance operating profit is still +70.
7%, operating ROE rose by 7.
6%, which is mainly due to the continued recovery of the capital market leading to increased investment income (total investment income increased by +63.
2% to 179.
81 billion, total investment yield increased by 2.
6%), and the decrease in program fees (ten years-20).
2%) can reduce its budget.
1) Underwriting profit has improved, and underwriting 杭州夜网论坛 profit in the second half of 2019 will be 45.
500 million, an increase of 18 over the first half.
2%; 2) Comprehensive cost rate increased by 0.
4%, but still continue the industry, in which the expense ratio is -2 in the context of serious regulatory trends.
, But the payout ratio increased by 2.
(It is expected to be mainly caused by non-auto insurance types such as guarantee insurance).
Profit forecast and investment grade: the company insists on focusing on value, the new business value rate continues to improve, the optimization of the human structure has achieved initial results, and the agent’s production capacity has grown significantly; the company’s operating indicators with life insurance as its core still surpassed its peers, and its operating profit grew steadilyLong-term firm.
We expect the company’s NBV growth to be about 3 in 2020 and 2021.
8% is currently the expected total of 1 share.
03 2020PEV, maintain the “Buy” level.
Risk reminders: 1) The subsequent sales of guaranteed products are less than expected; 2) The long-term interest rate extension affects the investment side; 3) changes in the equity market; 4) the uncertainty of the mechanism.